It seems Spring is making a proper appearance at last, albeit only for a few days perhaps. Anyway, I went out and took some photos in a nearby bluebell woods - you can see the pics via my Image London blog.
If you like animals, you might enjoy The Daily Coyote blog, by a woman who adopted an orphaned coyote. She takes great photos too.
On the other hand, if you are suffering from depression, you might like to try the BROH trick: it stands for Brain Running Old Habits - the article will explain in properly, but basically it is about remembering that you and your habits of thought are two separate entities. Learn to identify but don't identify with those depressing thoughts: don't believe them. They are just a habit.
If you are thinking of getting married... and your maths is up to it, why not try working out what your odds are? Geek Logic might do the trick. According to that I should get married but should only have three quarters of a kid...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Credit Crunch
The credit crunch is all very well - indeed, I've been having my very own credit crunch for most of my life it seems - but in some parts of the world things are, of course, much worse than here. According to Macrohistory, a very good history site, the news for April 9th is:
So... OK, the official inflation rate here is about 2.5%. In reality, food prices rose by 11% over the last 12 months here. Elsewhere, because of problems with wheat and rice crops this year plus increasing demand from rising populations, prices are rising much faster. And of course there's Zimbabwe with 116,000% inflation. That is, "hyperinflation".
Apr 9 People around the world are rioting because of food prices or availability: in Egypt, Mexico, Haiti, Yemen, Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan, Guinea, Mauritania. In South Korea there is panic buying. In the Philippines, officials are raiding warehouses looking for unscrupulous traders hoarding rice. The rising price of oil has made food production more expensive. Nations are cutting back on their exports of food in order to have enough for their own people. Egypt's reduction of rice exports is hurting Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. On April 3, world rice prices rose as much as 30 percent.
So... OK, the official inflation rate here is about 2.5%. In reality, food prices rose by 11% over the last 12 months here. Elsewhere, because of problems with wheat and rice crops this year plus increasing demand from rising populations, prices are rising much faster. And of course there's Zimbabwe with 116,000% inflation. That is, "hyperinflation".
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Working Too Much?
I've hardly had time to do anything much lately - too much work! Plus watching the Great Depression unfold, if that is what it is doing (see previous post). But here are a few interesting web pages I've managed to dig up even so. You might want to calculate your global "footprint" at the Earthday Footprint Page. They try to calculate how many planet Earths would be needed if everybody lived like you do. My lifestyle adds up to 1.5 Earths; below average for a Westerner. But really I don't buy all this scaremongering. Yes people could take more care of the planet and I wish we would, but in the end, I believe we will sort the problems out and maintain or improve our lifestyles. Technology rules!
On another subject altogether (or is it?), did you know that Jesus had female apostles? Society up to 400AD and indeed much later couldn't really comprehend that, so the women were largely erased from the record - but not completely. I always thought that the idea that a priest had to have a willy just because Jesus (presumably) did was a bit weird anyway.
And now, even further off the limb: video lectures about really weird stuff - like flying saucers and so on. Enjoy it, but perhaps take it with a pinch of salt. Science requires scepticism of hearsay.
On another subject altogether (or is it?), did you know that Jesus had female apostles? Society up to 400AD and indeed much later couldn't really comprehend that, so the women were largely erased from the record - but not completely. I always thought that the idea that a priest had to have a willy just because Jesus (presumably) did was a bit weird anyway.
And now, even further off the limb: video lectures about really weird stuff - like flying saucers and so on. Enjoy it, but perhaps take it with a pinch of salt. Science requires scepticism of hearsay.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
1929 Recapitulated?
Back in 2003 I wrote an article about the coming Great Depression. Well, the current "sub-prime" banking crisis certainly fits the pattern of a financial bubble finally bursting.
Basically, a wunch of bankers have been lending money to people such as myself who can't afford it, and now they're all surprised as it blows up in their faces. The boss of the Northern Rock bank, Britain's recent casualty, bleated before a parliamentary committee that "nobody could have foreseen this", as if people such as myself haven't been forecasting this outcome for, literally, decades.
I see that UBS in Switzerland has written down billions of dollars against bad debts. How can one choose a bank these days? Well, there can be no guarantees really, but probably it is necessary to do a load of homework first. For example, UBS's share price has fallen 83% over the last year in the lead-up to their crisis. Bear Stearns' share price had been sliding for some time before that crisis broke. It seems somebody had a clue. Probably, if you have any funds that you can't afford to lose, they should be spread between a number of UNRELATED institutions, and a number of currencies. In the UK, guarantees only cover up to around £30,000 on deposits (and the deposits must be in unrelated banks for them all to be protected). Check this article at http://www.moneysavingexpert.co.uk for advice.
Is the dollar a safe currency any more? Nobody knows. US interest rates are down, making it unattractive and raising inflation in countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar. If too much money leaves the US to find better rates elsewhere, the US will find itself with the unenviable choice between a collapsing currency raising the prices of imports to unaffordable levels, or raising interest rates and crushing the economy that way instead. That is, slump1 or slump2.
Bankers around the world are afraid of inflation - and certainly, hyperinflation such as in Zimbabwe at the moment or Germany between the wars is worth avoiding at all costs - but generally, a great depression is much worse than normal inflation levels. Inflation, after all, allows people to pay off their debts with cheap money: the debt remains much the same but your wages tend to go up each year. Depression makes debts progressively harder and harder to pay off as money becomes more and more expensive (falling prices means your cash is more valuable (e.g., your wages may fall), which means it is harder to pay things off). The golden rule: cash is king. Hold on to it!
Basically, a wunch of bankers have been lending money to people such as myself who can't afford it, and now they're all surprised as it blows up in their faces. The boss of the Northern Rock bank, Britain's recent casualty, bleated before a parliamentary committee that "nobody could have foreseen this", as if people such as myself haven't been forecasting this outcome for, literally, decades.
I see that UBS in Switzerland has written down billions of dollars against bad debts. How can one choose a bank these days? Well, there can be no guarantees really, but probably it is necessary to do a load of homework first. For example, UBS's share price has fallen 83% over the last year in the lead-up to their crisis. Bear Stearns' share price had been sliding for some time before that crisis broke. It seems somebody had a clue. Probably, if you have any funds that you can't afford to lose, they should be spread between a number of UNRELATED institutions, and a number of currencies. In the UK, guarantees only cover up to around £30,000 on deposits (and the deposits must be in unrelated banks for them all to be protected). Check this article at http://www.moneysavingexpert.co.uk for advice.
Is the dollar a safe currency any more? Nobody knows. US interest rates are down, making it unattractive and raising inflation in countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar. If too much money leaves the US to find better rates elsewhere, the US will find itself with the unenviable choice between a collapsing currency raising the prices of imports to unaffordable levels, or raising interest rates and crushing the economy that way instead. That is, slump1 or slump2.
Bankers around the world are afraid of inflation - and certainly, hyperinflation such as in Zimbabwe at the moment or Germany between the wars is worth avoiding at all costs - but generally, a great depression is much worse than normal inflation levels. Inflation, after all, allows people to pay off their debts with cheap money: the debt remains much the same but your wages tend to go up each year. Depression makes debts progressively harder and harder to pay off as money becomes more and more expensive (falling prices means your cash is more valuable (e.g., your wages may fall), which means it is harder to pay things off). The golden rule: cash is king. Hold on to it!
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