Wednesday, March 12, 2003

Right! I've finally added some short stories to the Tucana site; they can be accessed via the Sci-Fi Novel page.

So, the war in Iraq still hasn't happened yet. Should it? And shouldn't it be a war against Iraq, rather than in Iraq? Anyway, given that Saddam is causing the deaths of some 150-200 people per day, that is, 55,000 to 75,000 per year, it seems like a good idea to me. Leave him in power for another (say) 10 years and let some 500,000 people die, or get rid of him now at a cost of say 100,000 lives (as per the official figures from the last war) and save 400,000. The arithmetic speaks for itself.

But what of the possible consequences? The end of the United Nations? Well, if it doesn't work, do we need it? Perhaps it is time to discard it and come up with a better, less corrupt and less corruptible system. After all, do we really respect the opinion of countries like China (of Tiananmen Square fame)? Or France (whose premier, Chirac, has said he will veto a war against Iraq no matter what)? Or Russia (prosecuting a very dubious war in Chechnya)? Each of which countries stands to gain from oil deals with Iraq if sanctions are lifted and Saddam stays in power, but not otherwise? What if there is a new anti-Western jihad? Well, I hope not, but we would win it in the end, at a cost of perhaps 20,000,000 lives. Not worth it, unless the risks to democracy and freedom are greater by not fighting it, of course. What are the odds of jihad? Small, is my guess, based on nothing much. So, worth it again, if my guess is right (you have to play the odds, I think, but more than my hand-waving would be needed to figure out just what those odds are).

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